The Real Reason Some People Are Still Moving Right Now

The Real Reason Some People Are Still Moving Right Now Simplifying The Market

You may be telling yourself you’re going to wait to move – maybe you’re hoping mortgage rates will come down, prices will fall, or the market will feel a little easier.

And honestly? A lot of people feel that way right now. But here’s what some are starting to realize.

Waiting doesn’t usually fix the thing that made you want to move in the first place.

Your family still desperately needs more room. Your empty nest still feels too…empty.

Your parents or grandparents still need you to live closer.

You just got married… or divorced.

Your vision of retirement has you living somewhere else.

Eventually, life can reach a point where waiting feels harder than moving.

That’s why some people are still deciding to buy right now, even in today’s market. Not because conditions are perfect. But because the life changes behind their move never really went away.

And maybe that’s exactly where you are too. If so, you’re certainly not alone.

The Real Reasons People Move 

Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows 1 in 5 buyers last year said they felt like they had to purchase a home at that time, no matter the market.

That’s an important reminder right now. Sure, the dollars and cents of your move have to make sense for you. But big life changes happen whether mortgage rates and home prices are high, low, or somewhere in between. 

And those big life events happen more than you may think. NAR says roughly 22.5 million people experience major life changes in a typical two-year span (see graph below):

a graph of blue rectangular objects

These are exactly the kinds of things that can change how much space you need, where you want to live, or what kind of lifestyle makes sense now. Chen Zhao, Head of Economics Research at Redfin, explains:

“Life doesn’t stand still—people get new jobs, grow their families, downsize after retirement, or simply want to live in a different neighborhood.”

And that’s what makes waiting so hard. Every month you spend hoping the market changes is another month living in a house that no longer works for your life. It’s stressful to feel stuck. And that feeling usually doesn’t disappear.

There May Be More Opportunity Than You Think

But while affordability is still a challenge, there may still be a way for you to make your move.

The number of homes for sale has been growing for 4 straight years (see graph below). That means more homes to choose from and, in some markets, more room to negotiate than buyers had just a few years ago. 

a graph of growth of a straight year

That doesn’t mean moving is suddenly easy. But it does mean some buyers are finding ways to make a move work. So, if you’ve been putting your plans on hold, maybe the question isn’t just:

“What’s the market doing?” or “When will it get better?”

Maybe ask yourself this, too: “Can I still live where I’m at right now and make it work?”

If the answer to that second question is “no,” it may be worth having a conversation about what your options look like today – despite where rates or prices are. You could find your move is still possible after all. With more homes for sale, there’s a better chance to find one that fits your life (and your budget) right now.

Bottom Line

Life changes. Priorities shift. Families grow. Kids move out. Careers evolve. And eventually, the house you’re in may stop fitting the life you’re living.

If that’s been weighing on you lately, talk to an agent about what your options could realistically look like today, no matter where rates or prices are.

Life can’t always wait for perfect market conditions. Maybe you don’t have to either.

The Truth About Affordability Today

The Truth About Affordability Today Simplifying The Market

Let’s be real with each other for a second about affordability. Because you deserve someone who will be honest and transparent about what’s going on, especially if you’ve got a move on your mind.

Here’s the full picture of what’s happening and why. The good – and the bad. So, you know what it truly means for your move. Because while rates are certainly a big part of affordability, they’re not the only factor at play.

Mortgage Rates Have Been Rising

After a year or more of rates trending down, they’ve started to climb again. And, if you’re looking to buy, that’s not what you want to see. But it has happened. And here’s why.

Uncertainty is the enemy of mortgage rates.

And with lingering global uncertainty, ongoing tensions in the Middle East, and inflation refusing to fully cool off, there’s a lot that’s having an effect on rates. Colin Robertson, Founder of The Truth About Mortgage, put it plainly:

“You can’t have $100 a barrel oil and not expect inflation to rise, which translates to higher bond yields and mortgage rates.”

Take a look at the graph below. It uses data from Mortgage News Daily to show just how much all of those factors have had an impact:

a graph with a line and a green arrowIt’s a pretty sharp contrast from where we’ve been, in a relatively short window. And it’s probably making you wonder: Should I just wait this out? Will rates fall when the uncertainty eases?

It’s possible. But it all depends on how the ongoing geopolitical conflict plays out and whether inflation continues to run hot afterwards – and for how long.

Rates probably aren’t heading down until both of those things improve. And even when that does happen, experts agree rates likely won’t be dramatically lower – maybe in the low to mid-6s. That’s the reality, and it’s worth knowing.

So, should you wait for lower rates? The general consensus is, if you can afford to buy and you find a home you like, it’s still worth it. Because no one knows for sure when rates will start to come back down – and how long do you really want to put your life on hold?

Wages Are Outpacing Home Prices

You’ve probably heard that inflation is making everything more expensive, and there’s no shortage of headlines about the cost-of-living outpacing paychecks. It’s a legitimate concern. And maybe you’re feeling the pinch yourself. But here’s what doesn’t make the headlines. It’s not all bad news.

Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Redfin shows wages have actually been growing faster than home prices.

  • Recently, wages have been increasing at around 4% year-over-year. 

  • And home price growth is closer to 2% year-over-year.

As a buyer, you want your income to rise faster than prices because that helps make your purchase more manageable financially, and it quietly chips away at the affordability challenge over time. That’s exactly what we’re seeing lately. And every little bit is going to help.

A big reason wages have been gaining ground on home prices? Home prices have actually stayed pretty steady.

Existing Home Prices Have Held Steady

Check out the graph below. It shows home price data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) over the past 4 years. Notice anything? There’s been no dramatic runup, and no crash either. Just relative stability and slow growth:

a graph of blue lines

Part of what’s keeping prices this stable is that buyers finally have more choices. That means less competition, more negotiating power, and more time to find the home that actually fits your life, not just the one you had to grab before someone else did.

And that gives you a chance to hopefully find something that works for your budget, even with today’s rates. At the same time, you’re not losing ground pricewise while you take time to make a careful decision.

Bottom Line

Yes, rates have been volatile, and global instability is keeping them from settling down anytime soon. There’s no sugarcoating that. But the full picture of affordability is more nuanced than the headlines suggest.

Want to run the real numbers for your situation? Talk with a local real estate agent. They’d love to show you what’s actually possible in today’s market. Reach out to set up a quick, no-pressure conversation.

What Most Veterans Don’t Know About Their VA Home Loan Benefit

What Most Veterans Don't Know About Their VA Home Loan Benefit Simplifying The Market

Nearly half of Veterans (49%) feel homeownership is currently out of reach, according to a recent survey from NewDay USA.

But many are closer than they think. And you might be, too.

If you’re a Veteran, you probably know the Veterans Affairs (VA) home loan benefit exists – it’s been around for over 80 years. What you might not know is what it actually covers. Three misconceptions trip up Veterans the most (see graph below):

a diagram of a home loanAny one of those beliefs could be holding you back. Let’s walk through all three, so you have the information you really need.

You May Not Have To Put Any Money Down

The potential to put zero money down is probably the biggest perk of a VA loan, but most homebuyers don’t even realize that’s an option. According to the NewDay USA survey, many respondents guessed they’d need to save somewhere between $10,000 and $19,900 before they could buy. That’s years of saving for an upfront cost that isn’t always required.

You May Have Lower Closing Costs

According to the Department of Veterans Affairs, with VA loans, there can be limits on the types of closing costs buyers have to pay. That means more money stays in your pocket on closing day – and you have less to save up for before you can buy. The benefit combined with the down payment perk can speed up your buying timeline.

Your Monthly PMI Costs Could Be $0

Unlike many other loan options, VA loans typically don’t require private mortgage insurance (PMI), even with low or no money down. If you take out a conventional loan instead, you could pay $100 to $300 a month in PMI until you hit 20% equity, according to NewDay USA. Over time, that’s a difference of thousands of dollars.

Your BAH & BAS May Help You Qualify for More

If you’re on active duty or if you’re a qualifying reservist, your Basic Allowance for Housing (BAH) and Basic Allowance for Subsistence (BAS) may count toward income qualification on a VA loan. So, if you were running the numbers without factoring your BAH or BAS in, you could qualify for more than you thought. Both BAH and BAS are non-taxable, so they can help raise the amount you can qualify for. 

Bottom Line

VA home loans can put homeownership within reach, and a trusted lender can help make sure you understand the details before you move forward.

If you’re active duty, you’ve served, or know someone who has, connect with a trusted lender who can walk you through whether you’d qualify and what the VA benefit offers. You may be able to buy a home sooner than you thought.

Newly Built Home Prices Hit a 5-Year Low

Newly Built Home Prices Hit a 5-Year Low Simplifying The Market

If you’ve always assumed a newly built home is just not in your budget, you should know the math just got a little friendlier.

The median sale price of a newly built home is now at its lowest level since 2021, according to the latest data from the Census. And on top of that, builders are still rolling out incentives to bring buyers through the door.

Here’s what’s happening, and what it means if you’re shopping right now.

Prices on Newly Built Homes Have Come Down

After a steep climb during the pandemic years, prices have eased a bit. The median sale price of newly built homes is sitting at about $390,000. That’s the lowest it’s been in nearly five years (see graph below):

a graph of a home pricesWhile local markets vary, the national trend is moving in your favor, especially if you’re a first-time buyer. According to Zonda, prices in the entry-level price range have dropped roughly 2.7% over the past 12 months – more than any other price tier.

That doesn’t mean every home in every market is suddenly affordable. But it does mean that, broadly, you’ll see the best prices on new builds since 2021, if you’re buying now.

Why This Isn’t a Repeat of 2008

And just in case you’re thinking it, lower prices don’t mean the new home market is in trouble. Builders today are being intentional about how much inventory they have, so it doesn’t pile up the way it did in 2008.

If you look back up at the graph, you’ll see that even after the recent improvement in new home prices, they’re still higher than pre-pandemic norms. So, this isn’t a crash. It’s a builder strategy to keep inventory moving.

Homebuilders Are Still Sweetening the Deal

Lower sticker prices aren’t the only break buyers are getting. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), 60% of builders are currently offering some form of incentive to attract buyers. Those typically include:

  • Help with closing costs: Some builders are covering thousands of dollars in fees to reduce the upfront cost of buying.
  • Extra upgrades: Think premium finishes, appliance packages, and designer features, often added at no extra cost.
  • Mortgage rate buydowns: When the builder pays to lower your mortgage rate, which reduces your monthly payment.
  • Price cuts: Over one in three builders (36%) are cutting prices right now, averaging about 5% off list price (see graph below):

a blue and grey pie chartThat last point catches a lot of buyers off guard – most assume that builders won’t budge on price.

But builders need to move what they’ve built. That’s a different mindset than a homeowner deciding whether to budge on price. So, you may find they’re more open to adjusting the price than you’d think. As Joel Berner, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, puts it:

“. . . many existing-home sellers resort to taking down their listing instead of taking less than their desired price, but builders are more motivated to sell their inventory than owner-occupants . . .”

And if you use the version of the graph that shows 2008 prices, you can even reference that in this explainer.

And if here, should I change the last sentence of the lede?

Bottom Line

Builder incentives and lower new home prices are working to your advantage in a way they haven’t in years. Connect with a local real estate agent to see what’s available in your area and what kind of deal a builder may be willing to make.

Record High Mortgage Debt Sounds Scary. Here’s What the Headlines Leave Out.

Record High Mortgage Debt Sounds Scary. Here’s What the Headlines Leave Out. Simplifying The Market

You may have seen the headlines lately about mortgage debt in America hitting a record high. And maybe your brother-in-law brought it up at the dinner table like he’s been waiting all week to spark a debate.

Here’s the thing. He’s not wrong. But he only has half the story. And the half he’s missing? It changes everything.

Spoiler: homeowners are on stronger footing than the headlines suggest, and the housing market has more going for it than most people realize.

The Headline Number Is Real, But It’s Missing Context

Yes, according to the Federal Reserve, there is currently about $14 trillion in mortgage debt in the United States. That is an all-time high. And when you hear that alongside stories about people struggling to pay their bills, it’s easy to assume the worst.

But here’s what the data actually shows (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing the value of a mortgageThis chart from the Federal Reserve tracks three things from 2000 to today: the total value of all U.S. homes (the green line), the equity homeowners hold in those homes (the blue line), and the total mortgage debt owed on them (the orange line).

Right now, home values sit at $47.9 trillion. Homeowner equity is at $34.1 trillion. And the mortgage debt everyone’s worried about? It’s $14.4 trillion.

Debt is at a record high, sure. But the equity homeowners have built up is more than double that number, and it’s also near a record high.

Here’s the part worth pausing on. See the years between 2008 and 2013 where the orange line was higher than the blue one? That’s when the housing market was in genuine trouble. When debt exceeds equity like it did back then, homeowners have no cushion.

So, when prices dropped in 2008, millions of people owed more than their homes were worth and had nowhere to go. That’s what a housing crisis actually looks like. That’s not what’s happening today. Right now, it’s just the opposite.

The gap between what people owe and what they own has never been wider – in a good way. Today, they have far more equity than debt.

Most Homeowners Are in a Rock-Solid Position

So, we know equity is high nationally. But what does that actually look like at the individual homeowner level? This next chart uses data from ATTOM and the Census to put it in perspective:

a pie chart with textOut of all owner-occupied homes in the country, 33.3 million are owned completely free and clear – no mortgage, no lender, no risk of foreclosure. Another 22.3 million homeowners have more than 50% equity in their homes.

Add those together, and you’re looking at nearly two-thirds of all homeowners who have either paid off their mortgage entirely or have such a substantial equity stake that they’re in an extremely stable position.

The remaining slice – 29.1 million homes with less than 50% equity – isn’t a sign of distress, either. That includes plenty of people who recently bought, are building equity over time, and are doing just fine. 

The point is this isn’t a market teetering on the edge. It’s a market built on an unusually strong foundation.

Bottom Line

Record mortgage debt makes for a scary headline. But context matters.

Equity is near an all-time high, home values have surged, and the vast majority of homeowners are in a position of real financial strength. The conditions that made 2008 a crisis simply don’t exist right now.

If you’re wondering what all of this means for your situation, whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just trying to make sense of the market, a local real estate agent would love to talk it through with you. Reach out anytime. No pressure, just answers.

Are Home Prices Going To Fall?

Are Home Prices Going To Fall? Simplifying The Market

It’s one of the biggest hold ups some buyers have right now: “What if I buy, and home prices go down?”

With everything in the news, that concern makes some sense. No one wants to make a big financial decision at the wrong time. But here’s what’s important to know. You don’t want to get hung up on the few places seeing slight declines right now.

When you zoom out and look at the full picture, home prices usually rise over time.

What the Data Really Shows

Take a look at the visual below. It uses data from Case-Shiller and Bilello to show how home prices have changed year by year going all the way back to the 1950s.

Here’s the key takeaway.

Outside of the housing crash, home prices have either held steady or increased in just about every year for decades (see visual below):

a chart of percentages and numbersThat’s a remarkably consistent track record. And it shows something a lot of headlines miss.

While short-term shifts can happen, it’s the long-term gains that really matter.

Why Prices Tend To Rise Over Time

There are a few core reasons prices usually go up each year:

  • There are always people who need to move. People need a place to live, and that demand will never fully go away. It may ebb and flow, but someone will always have to move as big changes happen in their life. So, homes stay in demand.
  • There still aren’t enough homes for sale. While the number of homes for sale has grown, nationally there’s still an undersupply based on how many people want a home. That keeps upward pressure on prices.
  • Inflation has an impact. Over time, the cost of goods (including homes) naturally increases. That pushes home values higher.

What That Means for You as a Buyer

It’s easy to get caught up in what might happen with home prices next month or next year, especially if you’re a first-time buyer and you’re feeling a little anxious about making such a big financial commitment. But the big picture is clear. Prices usually rise.

That doesn’t mean prices will go up every single year in every market. Real estate is local, and there can be short-term ups and downs. We’re seeing that in some places right now. You can even see it in the few annual dips in the visual above.

But historically, the declines have been temporary.

That’s why it’s generally recommended to buy a home only if you plan to stay for a while – typically at least five years. That’s normally enough time to see your house grow in value. And, it’s enough so you can ride out any short-term changes in the market.

Because when you can do that, something powerful happens. Those rising home values grow your net worth, and by extension, help you build wealth.

The right decision isn’t about timing the market perfectly. It’s about making a move that works for your life and staying in it long enough to benefit from the bigger trend.

Bottom Line

Home prices have a long track record of going up over time. And that’s why buying a home is generally considered a safe long-term investment.

That certainly doesn’t mean you have to buy now. You should only move when it makes sense, and you plan to live there for a while.

But if you’re interested, let this reassure you. If you want to talk about what home prices are doing in our market, your goals, or your timelines, reach out to a local agent.

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